It was always going to be an uphill task for PH to win back this seat from PN, right from the start of the campaign, because of the following reasons: (i) the challenge of countering the narrative of the rising cost of living in the post-Covid-19 landscape under the unity government; (ii) the poor communication with regards to the policy direction of the unity government; and (iii) the tough reality that there are more issues for the opposition to attack the government on compared to positive outcomes which the government can claim credit for.
The battle was made harder during the campaign because of (i) the inability of the government to effectively explain the reasons for the introduction of the targeted diesel subsidy; (ii) the incessant politicisation by the opposition of the Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd privatisation exercise involving a minority share by Global Infrastructure Partners, which is being acquired by BlackRock; and (iii) the unfortunate use of derogatory remarks by PKR elections campaign director, Rafizi Ramli, against the opposition and the unnecessary playing up of the differences in academic qualifications of the PH versus PN candidates.
The dramatic fall in non-Malay turnout reflected the growing disappointment among the Chinese and Indian communities towards the unity government over unfilled promises and poor performance amid an uncertain economic landscape.
The poor handling of the dual language programme and matriculation-related issues also likely contributed to this sense of unhappiness.
The lower turnout as a protest vote among the non-Malays and the slight shift in non-Malay vote towards PN should be a warning sign to PH and Umno. If this trend continues and if it cannot be reversed before GE16, a sizeable number of marginal seats won by PH in GE15 and some of the seats which Umno is hoping to hold on to via an electoral pact with PH may be lost to PN.
Will Sungai Bakap be a positive wake-up call for the unity government? Time will tell, but I am not particularly optimistic at this point.
Ong Kian Ming is currently pro-vice chancellor of Taylors University. He was also previously Bangi MP and a former deputy minister of investment, trade and industry.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.